TL;DR
Get smart everyday buys delivered free with Prime
- Fast, free delivery on millions of items
- Prime Video, Amazon Music and more included
- Member-only deals all year
The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expected inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1%, while longer-term expectations were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth and higher unemployment, alongside stronger income, spending and home-price growth expectations.
The European Central Bank reported on 23 October that euro area consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged. The monthly survey also showed a weaker outlook for economic growth and a higher expected unemployment rate, offering policymakers a snapshot of household views on prices and the economy.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months edged up to 3.6% from 3.5%, according to the ECB, as also reported in its July survey results. Expected inflation three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and the five-year expectation stayed at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The release does not provide a measure of the size of that increase in uncertainty.
Consumers’ expected nominal income growth for the coming year rose to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth also increased, to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous year reached 5.3%, up from 5.2%. These are survey expectations and perceptions, not official forecasts of future household income or expenditure.
The outlook for the economy moved in the opposite direction: expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Respondents put the current unemployment rate they perceived at 10.6%, and the ECB said the small gap between that figure and the expected future rate suggested a broadly stable labour-market outlook in respondents’ assessments.
Inflation and Jobs Shape Household Outlook
The results matter because household expectations can help the ECB assess how consumers view future prices, economic activity and financial conditions. The survey is one of several data sources used for policy analysis; its results do not, on their own, determine interest-rate decisions or establish what inflation, growth or unemployment will actually be.
The September findings are mixed. Near-term inflation expectations rose slightly, but measures further ahead did not change. At the same time, consumers anticipated weaker growth and higher unemployment, even as they expected somewhat faster income and spending growth. Taken together, the figures describe household sentiment rather than a single, uniform direction in the euro area economy.
Differences across income groups also stand out. Respondents in the lowest income quintile reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest quintile. They also expected higher unemployment and mortgage rates, while their expected home-price growth was greater. These gaps show that the aggregate results can conceal different expectations across households.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
How the ECB Survey Is Compiled
The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults across 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026, so its answers were collected over several weeks rather than on a single date.
The ECB says the survey complements other data used in policy analysis. Unless the release states otherwise, its published statistics refer to the 2% winsorised mean, a calculation approach described in the ECB’s guide to aggregate statistics. The press release also reports selected results as medians, including the inflation figures highlighted here. The ECB notes that survey results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
Housing measures added another contrasting signal. Consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4% in August, while expected mortgage rates were unchanged from July at 4.9%. The net share reporting tighter access to credit over the previous year increased compared with August, as did the net share expecting tighter conditions ahead. The release gives no percentage-point values for those credit-access changes.
““Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.””
— European Central Bank
inflation calculator for personal budgeting
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
What the Survey Cannot Establish
The survey records what participating consumers perceive and expect; it does not establish future inflation, economic growth, unemployment, home prices or borrowing costs. The release does not identify what caused the monthly changes, and it gives no detailed breakdown of how expectations varied by country. Its findings should not be read as an ECB policy decision or as a forecast issued by the ECB’s decision-making bodies.
Some details behind the reported movements are also not quantified in the press release. It says inflation uncertainty rose slightly and that net reports of tighter credit increased, but does not state the size of either change. The release also notes that inflation uncertainty remained above its level before the conflict in the Middle East began, without supplying a numerical comparison in this summary.
home energy usage monitor to reduce utility bills
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. That release will provide the next monthly comparison for consumer views on inflation, income, spending, employment, housing and credit access. The September results are also available alongside the underlying microdata and methodological information through the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey pages and Data Portal.
Until then, the September figures remain a record of responses collected between late August and late September. Any assessment of whether the shifts persist will depend on later survey waves and other economic data; the ECB’s release does not state how policymakers will respond to these results.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Key Questions
What did euro area consumers expect inflation to be in September 2026?
The median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months was 3.1%, up from 3.0% in August. Expectations three years ahead remained 2.9%, and those five years ahead stayed at 2.5%.
Did consumers expect the economy to improve?
No. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2% in August. This is a survey measure of consumer expectations, not an official ECB growth forecast.
What did respondents expect for unemployment?
The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Respondents’ perceived current rate was 10.6%, which the ECB said pointed to a broadly stable labour-market outlook in their assessments.
When will the ECB publish the next survey results?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
Halloween Picks
halloween
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
